PABLO ROMERO / COMMUNICATION AREA FEB
Smokes above, but especially below. And it is that the calculator offers us a large number of probabilities for the last day of a LEB Gold League with many fronts still open and in which the difference between the permanence or the jump to the Playoffs for promotion can be found in a margin as narrow as a direct average would result.
Although in this case, the fight for permanence will not be fully elucidated until the Ibereólica Ourense does not play its two postponed duels in parallel to a final day that will draw the Playoffs table with the crosses for a best of three games eliminatory.
A path with no margin for error and that will lead to a final with a single promotion spot at stake to the Endesa League.
With clear accounts regarding the teams that will compete in the fight for promotion, the last day will serve to position themselves in the search for the best possible position, the one that guarantees being able to play the greatest number of home games.
Playoff qualification: One of the few things that is clear in the absence of the dispute on the last day will be the name of the seven teams in the Group for Promotion that will compete in the first round of the Playoffs. Because, with the classification of Palmer Alma Medirerránea during the last day, a roster was completed in which Leyma Coruña, Covirán Granada, Río Breogán, TAU Castelló, Liberbank Oviedo and HLA Alicante had previously registered their names.
Leadership: Four will be the teams that face the last day of competition with mathematical options of being able to reach a leadership for which Leyma Coruña, Covirán Granada and Río Breogán are equal to 12 victories. Therefore, victory will be the starting point for all of them before knowing if a hypothetical tiebreaker should go through a double or triple tie in the table. To do this, Leyma Coruña and Río Breogán will play their options at home on a Sunday in which the Coruñeses will receive the fourth team with options, a TAU Castelló that walks a victory behind its predecessors and that starts a priori with the least number options given the complexity of the carom needed.
Field advantage: After winning their respective tickets to the Playoffs for promotion, the first four classified have been ensuring in recent days the home court factor in favor of the first playoff tie. Quite a prize that must mature now since, the better their league position, the more options they will have of being able to extend said privilege both for the semifinals and for a hypothetical final in which, a third game at home, could be worth its weight in gold .
The Grand Prize of the Cup: Once qualified for the playoffs for promotion into the top four, the Breogán River will face the last day with a wild card up its sleeve. And it is that, having been proclaimed champion of the Princess of Asturias Cup has the added value of being able to climb to the second position of the table as long as this does not occur naturally. That is to say, in the cases in which the people of Lugo could finish the League in third or fourth position, they would automatically occupy the second place. A wild card that would be annulled if the Lugo residents manage to regain first place, which would give the team the option to have a field advantage in all of the qualifying rounds.
With nothing at stake: Without mathematical options to be able to reach the Playoffs positions for promotion, three will be the teams that face the last day with nothing at stake: the Sur-Aspasia Clinic, the CB Almansa with Afanion and the Palencia Destination. In this way, the people of Valladolid and Palencia will say goodbye to the season in front of their fans to receive Palmer Alma Mediterránea and HLA Alicante, while the La Mancha will lower the curtain on their second season in the League visiting the Breogán River.
The last day of the Ascenso Group:
– Río Breogán vs CB Almansa with Afanion (12:30 pm)
– Leyma Coruña vs TAU Castelló (12:30 pm)
– Liberbank Oviedo vs Covirán Granada (12:30 pm)
– Clínica Sur-Aspasia RVB vs Palmer Alma Mediterránea (12:30 pm)
– Destination Palencia vs HLA Alicante (12:30 pm)
There is only one day to be played, but the Group for Permanence aims to keep all its fronts open for at least a few more hours, until the thermal Ourense River plays the two meetings postponed in recent weeks and that will mark the final outcome of the group.
Two postponements and 48 hours of waiting: After having recovered their duel against Levitec Huesca last Wednesday, Ibereólica Ourense still have three games left to play, the one corresponding to the last day and those postponed days ago. The first of them will be played this Wednesday at the Barris Nord and against ICG Força Lleida, but for the last, the Galicians will have to wait for the night of Tuesday 18, once the regular season is over. That is why this confrontation against Real Murcia could mark the permanence of one, another and even third parties, but also the move to some Playoffs that could still be mathematically possible for Rafa Monclova’s.
Playoff qualification: It is precisely this accumulation of pending games by the Ibereólica Ourense that currently complicates the accounts of a group in which there is only a margin victory between the first place and the relegation places. For this reason, the qualifying possibilities are multiple as there are seven teams involved between the fight for first place, which will allow them to renounce to the Playoffs, and the relegation places. A priori, the winner of the Multiusos duel between Cáceres P. Humanidad and Bàsquet Girona could have the classification really close, but if Real Murcia is able to beat Tizona Burgos at home, almost certainly, we would have to wait for the postponed duel of Tuesday 18 to elucidate a first place that could even fight the COB in case of triple victory.
The fight for permanence: With two of the four relegation places already awarded, it remains only to know which teams will occupy the 6th and 7th places with those who will accompany Tizona Burgos and ZTE Real Canoe to the LEB Plata League. A struggle that is difficult to calibrate in the absence of six matches to be played and that right now shows several dozen variants and possibilities that will force its protagonists not to speculate during the last day. Cabalas that make it difficult to calculate the exact probability of permanence, but that seem to bring Cáceres P. Humanidad and Bàsquet Girona closer to it given their advantage triumph as well as the possibility of adding a new triumph counting in turn with the mattress of the direct averages. A totally opposite situation to that of a COB who, with seven victories in his locker, needs to win or win between one and two games in order to maintain his options. Of course, with the peace of mind that knowing that it has three bullets in the chamber will bring the team. Matches that both Melilla Sport Capital and ICG Força Lleida will be very aware of, although their direct duel on Sunday would virtually save their winner and their loser in serious trouble.
A team, waiting: Having played all their matches on the date and being designated by the hype as the team called to rest on the last day, at Levitec Huesca they are awaiting events. And it is that Óscar Lata’s men have done their homework with two resounding victories against the COB in the last week that have given the team the provisional leadership. A first place that they will lose in the course of the last day given the direct confrontations and averages, but that could be enough to be able to maintain the category. Of course, for this, the Alto Aragón team will be very aware of what happens both on this last date and in the two duels of the Orense team and that will mark their future.
Teams already descended: Much to their regret, both ZTE Real Canoe and Tizona Burgos will bid farewell to the competition this Sunday after having materialized their respective relegations weeks ago. Despite this, both hope to finish the course with a victory with which to continue being judges of the League. In the case of the Madrilenians visiting a COB with the water around their neck and in the case of the Burgos, receiving a Real Murcia with all their fronts open.
The last day of the Permanence Group:
– Ibereólica Ourense vs ZTE Real Canoe (12:30 pm)
– Cáceres P. Humanidad vs Bàsquet Girona (12:30 pm)
– Melilla Sport Capital vs ICG Força Lleida (12:30 pm)
– Tizona University of Burgos vs Real Murcia Bto. (12: 30h)
– Rest: Levitec Huesca